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A voter enters an advance voting location in the riding of Hamilton East–Stoney Creek on Aug. 27.Nick Iwanyshyn/The Canadian Press
Voters in three Ontario ridings go to the polls Thursday to vote in a trio of by-elections that will be the first test for Premier Doug Ford’s government since trade talks with the U.S. collapsed late last month.
The races are happening at a critical time in Canada-U.S. relations and on the heels of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal sweep of three federal by-elections across the country on Monday.
Ontario’s contests are being held in York-Simcoe, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek and Scarborough Southwest. Mr. Ford’s Progressive Conservatives currently hold the two seats in York and Hamilton, which were vacated when former cabinet ministers Caroline Mulroney and Neil Lumsden resigned. The Scarborough seat in Toronto’s east end was previously held by former Ontario NDP deputy leader Doly Begum, who quit the party to run for the federal Liberals.
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Mr. Ford’s popularity took a hit earlier this spring following a series of controversies including the purchase of a $28.9-million private jet and a hotel expenses scandal that saw one of his cabinet ministers resign. But the Premier has since rebounded in some polls amid a public spat with U.S. President Donald Trump, who has personally attacked the Premier. Last week, Mr. Ford told Mr. Trump to “kiss my ass” and called him a loser.
The PCs are using the conflict with the U.S. President as part of their campaign materials, saying the Premier is the only one who can “stand up to Trump.” But political opponents say Mr. Ford is using the trade fight to deflect from his own government’s record.
Political observers expect the PCs to easily hold rural York-Simcoe, north of Toronto, long a conservative stronghold. But the Hamilton seat could be in play for the opposition parties. The NDP candidate, Monique Taylor, is a former long-time MPP from a neighbouring area, and the Liberals are hoping to make inroads with Heino Doessing, who placed second in the 2025 provincial election.
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The Scarborough seat is seen as the most unpredictable. Both Ontario NDP Leader Marit Stiles and Interim Liberal Leader John Fraser will be watching the by-election results roll in at candidate events in Scarborough.
The NDP see the seat, which was held by Ms. Begum for three terms, as a must-win for candidate Fatima Shaban. But the Liberals are hoping to take it back, following a nomination battle that saw former Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith accuse the party of wrongdoing after narrowly losing to candidate Ahsanul Hafiz.
The Ontario PC Party, meanwhile, has barred journalists from attending their candidates’ by-election parties, which are traditionally open to media. The party did not answer questions about why journalists will not be permitted inside election night events, or whether Mr. Ford will be in attendance in any of the ridings.