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Ontario Premier Doug Ford addresses attendees as OPSEU/SEFPO workers turn their backs to the stage and shout slogans against him during Ford Fest at Toronto’s Thomson Memorial Park on June 19.EDUARDO LIMA/The Globe and Mail
The booing began before Doug Ford hit the stage.
The Ontario Premier arrived at his marquee “Ford Fest” event on June 19 through a back entrance, avoiding the hundreds of purple-clad protesters from the Ontario Public Service Employees Union who descended upon the annual community barbecue to loudly voice their displeasure with the government.
In the past, Mr. Ford would wade into the crowd, snapping selfies and thanking supporters. But none of that happened. After his speech – which was all but drowned out by the crowd – Mr. Ford was whisked away.
For political watchers, it came as no surprise that the public-sector union members, some of whom are on strike over back pay, would show up to protest the Progressive Conservative Premier. Mr. Ford later told reporters that his “lovers” significantly outnumbered protesters at the event, and accused the union of bussing in members to rudely disrupt the evening while enjoying the free food.
It all capped off what was – even by the accounts of some Ford loyalists – not a very good spring for the three-term Premier.
Ford government denies altering pictures of union protesters, says it corrected ‘orange hue’
“I think the session was challenging for them,” said conservative strategist Amanda Galbraith, founder of public affairs firm Oyster Group.
“But third terms are notoriously difficult.”
Asked recently by reporters whether his time in office may be coming to its natural end, Mr. Ford was defiant.
“I’m no Justin Trudeau, okay?” he said, referring to the former prime minister who resigned in January, 2025, amid growing internal pressure and sinking popularity, citing polling that still puts his PCs in first place at 41 per cent.
The session was also marked by a high-profile departure. Former provincial Treasury Board president Caroline Mulroney resigned in early June after eight years in Mr. Ford’s cabinet, announcing that she was leaving politics for now. Conservatives have begun openly musing about who may be next to lead the PC Party.
The Ford government is now looking to reset with a five-month break from the legislature, which isn’t scheduled to sit again until Oct. 27.
After eight years as Premier, Mr. Ford remains a political anomaly – a leader who can make mistakes, apologize, and somehow come out looking more human. But after the messy spring that was, can Mr. Ford rebound like he has in past years, or has his political future taken a profound hit?
‘Gravy plane’
Perhaps nothing has captured Mr. Ford’s third term quite like the phrase “gravy plane.”
Throughout the spring sitting, Mr. Ford’s government proposed a series of controversial measures, including cuts to Ontario Student Assistance Program grants, changes to the freedom-of-information regime, and a takeover of Toronto’s role in the downtown Billy Bishop Airport with the goal of expanding it for jets, over the objections of Mayor Olivia Chow.
But the PCs seemed prepared for the criticism at a time when the next provincial election is still three or four years away.
“They clearly deliberately chose to spend some political capital on key issues they wanted to advance,” Ms. Galbraith said.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford says he listened to the taxpayers who told him over the weekend he needed to reverse his decision to buy a used $29-million private jet for his use.
The Canadian Press
Mr. Ford has also repeatedly proclaimed that the Billy Bishop expansion is extremely popular – at least among his own supporters.
The spring’s defining blunder, however, was the purchase and hasty resale of a $28.9-million private government jet.
Revealed on April 17, the government announced two days later that the aircraft, which the opposition swiftly dubbed the “gravy plane,” would be sold.
But the decision to sell the plane was actually made on the same day it was publicly announced, according to a senior government source. It was Mr. Ford who set the plan to sell the jet in motion, the source said. The Globe and Mail is not naming the source, as they were not authorized to speak publicly about internal decision-making.
The episode threatened the Premier’s personal brand of “for the people,” and risked making him look out-of-touch during an affordability crisis.
Critics link the incident to another notable moment in Mr. Ford’s tenure: when he publicly apologized in 2023 for his failed plan to open up the protected Greenbelt around the Greater Toronto Area for housing. The decision to rezone the lands, which would have benefited some developers with close ties to the Premier, is still under RCMP investigation.
“It’s not a one-off,” said Ontario NDP Leader Marit Stiles. “That’s how they operate, and it’s at the expense of regular people.”
Others believe Mr. Ford has largely weathered the storm.
The Premier and his government have pointed to a number of recent announcements they cast as significant achievements, including construction on a road to the Ring of Fire mining region; $1.5-billion alongside the federal government to lower development charges on new homes in Toronto; and memorandums of understanding to increase economic co-operation with Pennsylvania, South Carolina and Utah.
Laryssa Waler, Mr. Ford’s former executive director of communications, said the Premier has conditioned the public to expect mistakes.
“Nobody expects him to be perfect,” said Ms. Waler, now a managing partner at public affairs firm Henley Strategies.
“The Premier has grace from the public that he’s allowed to screw up.”
A key benefit to the Premier’s electoral success, Ms. Waler said, is that Mr. Ford has faced a relatively weak opposition while in office.
But that could soon change.
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Doug Ford speaks at a news conference in Toronto on May 12. The Ontario Premier has publicly declared that he intends to run for a fourth term.Chris Young/The Canadian Press
A Liberal saviour?
Walking through the Hamilton Farmers’ Market on a recent warm and windy afternoon, Navdeep Bains stopped to introduce himself: He’s running to be the next leader of the Ontario Liberal Party.
The former federal industry minister in Mr. Trudeau’s government – who recently left a high-profile job at Rogers Communications – has returned to politics after a five-year hiatus and is widely viewed as the front-runner to become the party’s next leader.
The provincial Liberals, who have cycled through two leaders since losing government to the PCs in 2018, are holding their third leadership contest this fall. The new leader will be named on Nov. 21.
Mr. Bains’ central pitch is that life has not improved under Mr. Ford, particularly in the areas of health care and education, and the province has not lived up to its economic potential.
“There’s a desire for change,” Mr. Bains said in an interview.
Well-liked, connected and politically experienced, Mr. Bains’ entry into the race has reignited Liberal hopes of returning to political relevance.
The road will not be easy. Mr. Ford has made quick work of his other political opponents – defining them in attack ads and successfully framing his own campaigns as responses to the times, including as a vocal defender against U.S. protectionism.
All eyes are now on a by-election set to be called in Scarborough Southwest this summer in Toronto’s east end. The provincial NDP have held the seat since 2018, and the Ontario Liberals are hoping to win it back, after dealing with their own internal drama during the nomination battle.
The race is a viewed as a must-win for both the NDP and Liberals.
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‘Fake’ polls
Standing in front of a docked ship at the Port of Thunder Bay in mid-June, Mr. Ford launched into a fervent defence of his popularity.
He was asked about the Angus Reid Institute’s recent premiers’ approval rankings, which had Mr. Ford at 21 per cent – the lowest in the country.
“They put this fake poll out,” Mr. Ford railed, claiming the firm polled the NDP and Liberal caucuses, rather than members of the public, and adding he’d win another “massive majority” if an election were held today.
That message did not go over well with Angus Reid. The firm sent a legal letter to Mr. Ford, and in a statement, said it stands by its work, calling for the public record to be corrected. When asked by reporters to respond, Mr. Ford did not address the question but again spoke about his party’s popularity in other polls.
Another polling firm, Abacus Data, recently found the PCs have stabilized at 41 per cent, appearing to rebound from the jet controversy, with Mr. Ford still the preferred Premier – although the poll also said 70 per cent of Ontarians want change.
The Angus Reid episode is part of a growing pattern, critics say, of Mr. Ford bending the truth to serve his message.
The government was also recently accused of doctoring images from Ford Fest, showing the crowd, which included many OPSEU protesters, appearing to be dressed in blue T-shirts, like the ones worn by the Premier’s supporters. Mr. Ford’s office said the photos, shared by two PC MPPs but not the Premier, used a “default saturation” to correct an orange hue but were not otherwise altered.
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Doug Ford makes an announcement about the Gardiner Expressway and Don Valley Parkway in Toronto on June 4,Arlyn McAdorey/The Canadian Press
Shachi Kurl, Angus Reid’s president, said Mr. Ford elicits “strong feelings” from the public, and that his trend line is rarely static.
“One of his political superpowers is digging himself out of a hole,” she said in an interview.
“With Ford you cannot say that hitting an all-time low at 21 per cent approval in June of 2026 necessarily means political curtains for the Premier. It really depends on, what do we see in September?”
Mr. Ford will spend much of the summer on the road. He visited the U.S. three times in June, and has a trip planned to Alberta during Stampede, as well as a meeting with his fellow premiers and Prime Minister Mark Carney in Prince Edward Island at the end of July.
For his part, Mr. Ford has already publicly declared that he intends to run for a fourth term – and that Ford Fest will forge ahead.
“I’ve always said, everyone’s welcome at Ford Fest. It’s the largest family barbecue in the entire country. Always will be,” Mr. Ford said.
“We’re going to continue doing it next year.”