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Alberta separatists gather at the provincial legislature in Edmonton last month for a protest organized by the Alberta Prosperity Project.Amanda May Erickson/The Canadian Press
A report commissioned by the Alberta government estimates that separating from Canada and assuming Ottawa’s responsibilities would cost the province an extra $60-billion per year, cost up to $170-billion over the first five years and lead to significant economic disruption.
The province on Wednesday published the report, written by a panel of experts at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy.
In the short term, the report says establishing a separate Alberta could cost between $50-billion and $170-billion over a five-year period.
It is the first time the Alberta government has commissioned a report on the financial implications of secession. In less than five weeks, on Oct. 19, Albertans will vote on whether to remain in Canada or lay the legal groundwork for a second, binding secession referendum.
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The report puts two scenarios on the table: a “smooth” path to separation in which negotiations with Canada provide an orderly transition out of the federation, and a “difficult” scenario in which Canada and other countries have a hostile reaction.
“The panel’s assessment emphasizes that both the scenarios outlined in the report highlight how costly it would be for Alberta to separate from Canada in the short term and also highlight the substantial amount of uncertainty Alberta would face in the long term,” Alberta’s Finance Minister Jason Nixon wrote in a statement.