Open this photo in gallery:
The recent quarterly population declines are a direct reflection of Ottawa’s new immigration goals.Andrej Ivanov/The Globe and Mail
Canada’s population fell by about 55,000 people in the first quarter of 2026, a third consecutive quarterly decline that is being driven by the federal government’s efforts to reduce the number of temporary residents in the country.
As of April 1, 2026, the country’s population stood at 41.4 million people, including citizens, permanent and temporary residents, according to new estimates from Statistics Canada. By contrast, a year ago, Canada’s population was approximately 0.5 per cent higher, at 41.6 million people.
The statistical agency estimated that the number of temporary residents decreased by roughly 118,000 people in the first quarter of 2026, a 4.4-per-cent decline over three months. This brings the total number of temporary residents in Canada to 2.56 million, or 6.1 per cent of the total population. Their ranks peaked at 3.15 million – or 7.6 per cent of the population – in late 2024.
Canada’s population saw significant growth between 2022 and 2024, when the previous Liberal government sought to fill job openings as pandemic restrictions were being eased. But there was a tangible backlash to the influx, with Canadian residents linking newcomers to housing affordability issues and other concerns.
While Justin Trudeau’s government was initially resistant to changing its immigration policies, it eventually introduced a series of adjustments in 2024 and 2025 that made it more difficult for international students and temporary foreign workers to arrive – and stay – in Canada.
Editorial Board: Ottawa’s enduring problem of a surge in temporary workers
Ottawa is targeting a temporary-resident goal of 5 per cent of the total population by the end of 2027, and the recent quarterly population declines are a direct reflection of Ottawa’s new immigration goals.
Statscan on Wednesday warned that the temporary resident figures are estimates and forecast that there could be “more pronounced upward changes” in the months ahead. The agency cited rapidly shifting migration policies as a key reason for revised estimates.
Specifically, Statscan said that the number of work and study permit extensions have increased, and processing times at the federal immigration department have lengthened, leading to larger-than-usual updates to the temporary resident count.
Fewer international master’s students given permits to study in last two years, figures show
The number of permanent resident admissions in Canada declined significantly in the first quarter of 2026, in line with tighter immigration restrictions. There were approximately 83,149 people who were granted permanent residency between January and April this year, a drop of 20.2 per cent compared with the same quarter in 2025. The federal government’s current annual target for permanent resident admissions is 380,000 people, or just under 1 per cent of the total population.
The country’s reduced immigration targets are having a significant effect on economic numbers, some analysts have noted, and that’s acting as a drag on aggregate statistics.
“Sustained improvement in economic growth under moderate immigration would require stronger productivity growth, higher labour force participation and increased hours worked,” wrote Don Drummond and Parisa Mahboubi, economists with the C.D. Howe Institute, in a research report released last month.
Canada reports first annual population decline on record
Prime Minister Mark Carney has also made a similar observation, remarking earlier this month that the Canadian economy’s weakness – the country has posted two consecutive declines in gross domestic product – was linked to the government’s decision to scale back immigration. The country is facing various other headwinds, such as heavy U.S. tariffs on key industrial sectors, that are also weighing on growth.
Statscan also noted in Wednesday’s report that the natural change in the population (number of births minus deaths) was virtually flat in the first quarter of 2026, with approximately 155 more deaths than births. The agency noted that the winter months tend to see fewer births and more deaths.
The natural population growth of most Western countries has been in decline for decades, in tandem with drastically lower fertility rates now than in previous decades.
On a full-year basis, the natural change in Canada’s population has never been negative.
However, that could change soon. In a recent report, Bank of Montreal senior economist Robert Kavcic projected that the natural population change is expected to turn negative for the first time in 2028, a shift that he says will have massive economic implications.
“The demographic ship is turning, and once it gets going, it is hard to change course,” he wrote, noting that plunging fertility rates across Latin America and Asia could mean that countries like Canada eventually find themselves “in competition for a quality immigration stream.”