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Ontario Premier Doug Ford speaks to media at a housing development in Hamilton, on Monday.Nick Iwanyshyn/The Canadian Press
Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives are using his recent round of fighting words with U.S. President Donald Trump as a selling point going into three provincial by-elections on Thursday, a strategy his opponents say is an attempt to deflect from a series of recent controversies.
Voters are going to the polls in three late summer by-elections, in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, York-Simcoe and Scarborough Southwest. The votes are being held less than two weeks after trade talks with the U.S. collapsed and Mr. Ford said Mr. Trump could “kiss my ass,” with the President responding in kind on social media and even ordering a new name for Lake Ontario.
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Election signs in the east Toronto riding of Scarborough Southwest for PC candidate Noor Tarun feature a yellow sticker that reads: “Stand up to Trump.” The focus on Washington mimics Mr. Ford’s approach in his victorious 2025 general election.
But this time it follows months of polls showing sagging approval ratings amid a series of issues, such as the Premier’s aborted purchase of $28.9-million private jet and the expensing of more than $120,000 for hotel rooms by his cabinet ministers and MPPs.
A recent poll from Liaison Strategies suggested that Mr. Ford’s approval rating has rebounded. The phone survey of 1,500 Ontarians, conducted Aug. 23 to 24, showed Mr. Ford’s approval rating at 36 per cent, up from a low of 24 per cent in July. The poll is considered accurate within plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, said the biggest boost for the PCs is happening in the north, southwest and southcentral regions of Ontario, which includes Hamilton.
“The fact that we’re back onto economic issues, away from scandals and expenses – especially in the closing week of the by-election – is going to make a big shift,” Mr. Valentin said, adding that Mr. Ford is “channelling the anger that people are feeling.”
In Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, candidates are vying to replace PC cabinet minister Neil Lumsden, who retired in August. Carrying the banner there for Mr. Ford is Jeff Beattie, a greenhouse and garden centre owner and one-term Hamilton city councillor.
The NDP are running former long-time MPP Monique Taylor, who left her provincial seat in nearby Hamilton Mountain in February, 2025, for an unsuccessful run at federal politics. The Liberal candidate, Heino Doessing, placed second to Mr. Lumsden in last year’s election – losing by about 4,000 votes.
In York-Simcoe, north of Toronto, voters will choose a replacement for departing cabinet minister Caroline Mulroney, in a riding she won handily in 2025 that has long been held by the PCs. Seven candidates are running, including Naomi Davison for the Liberals, Susan Lahey for the PCs and Bobby Nikmard for the NDP.
Scarborough Southwest, which has been held by a Liberal or New Democrat since 2003, was vacated in February by former NDP deputy leader Doly Begum, who defected to run for the federal Liberals and won a by-election in her riding earlier this year. The provincial Liberal candidate Ahsanul Hafiz narrowly won a bitter nomination battle, beating former Beaches-East York MP Nate Erskine-Smith. The NDP candidate is community advocate Fatima Shaban.
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Ontario NDP leader Marit Stiles speaks to striking steelworkers outside National Steel Car in Hamilton last month.Carlos Osorio/Reuters
In an interview, Opposition NDP Leader Marit Stiles said she would spend the final days with door-knocking teams in Scarborough and Hamilton, where she said her party is locked in two-way races with the PCs. She said she was not hearing about any “Trump bump” of support for Mr. Ford at the doors.
In Scarborough, people are frustrated with wait times in hospitals and short-staffing in schools, Ms. Stiles said. And in Hamilton, voters want Mr. Ford to act on pledges made in last year’s campaign to help tariff-affected workers, not trade barbs with the President or purchase private jets.
“You can throw around all the insults, but a year and a half ago, you told us you were going to deliver these things for us, and we don’t see them,” Ms. Stiles said.
Interim Liberal leader John Fraser, speaking by phone while canvassing in Hamilton on Tuesday, said by-elections often revolve around local issues, rather than leaders. But he acknowledged that the “Trump bump” may have helped Mr. Ford.
The PCs are cautiously optimistic about retaining their seats in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek and York-Simcoe – while acknowledging that Hamilton is the bigger fight. (Regardless of what happens, Mr. Ford will escape with the large majority he won in 2025 intact: The PCs currently hold 77 of 124 seats at Queen’s Park.)
Laryssa Waler, Mr. Ford’s former executive director of communications who is now a managing partner at public affairs firm Henley Strategies, said the PC Party has been pouring resources into Hamilton.
“All three candidates have good local name recognition and are stars in their own right,” she said. “But I think the Conservatives have the tailwinds behind them on all the trade stuff. A town like Hamilton wants to see their Premier standing up to Donald Trump and really likes that fighter in him.”
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Liberal strategist Marcel Wieder said Mr. Ford has benefitted politically from the latest spat with Mr. Trump.
“Donald Trump threw Doug Ford a lifeline. Instead of talking about jets, hotel bills, health care, and affordability, Ford gets to wrap himself up in Captain Ontario,” he said.
Mr. Wieder said the Liberals are highly competitive in Scarborough Southwest, with the NDP as their main opponents. But he said some Liberal votes may bleed to the PCs, leaving the NDP victorious. In Hamilton, he said, the race could go three ways.
Erin Morrison, a former senior NDP staffer and vice-president of Texture Communications, said the trade fight means has made it harder for Ms. Stiles to get her message out. “He needed a channel changer, and he really got one in the name of Donald Trump.”
But Ms. Morrison said voters in Hamilton especially are upset about Mr. Ford’s controversies this spring, giving the NDP a “strong chance” to flip the seat. She said Scarborough is also a tight a two-way race between the NDP and the PCs.